Does success spring from effort or luck?

People’s opinions differ on whether success in life is the result of individual effort or circumstances beyond anyone’s control.

Tony Judt’s masterful “Postwar: A History of Europe since 1945” notes that surveys repeatedly indicate a majority of Americans believe how well you do depends on how hard you work.

Majorities in Western Europe believe that political and social environments are the primary determinants of whether people succeed or fail in life.

Both factors obviously play a role. Talent and hard work count for much. But two people with equal talent working equally hard may have different outcomes depending on when or where they are born.

In his classic book, “Birth and Fortune,” economist Richard Easterlin examined how year of birth affected different age cohorts.

If you were born so that you hit your prime working years in 1929 — the start of the Great Depression — you probably earned much less than a younger sibling who came of age just in time for the post-World War II boom.

Where you were born can make as great a difference as when. I’m traveling in Brazil after a 33-year absence. In the last few days I have talked to a bricklayer, an electrician and an auto body repairer. All obviously were good at what they were doing. All were earning only a fraction of what a person with identical skills and effort would make in the United States.

I’m doing fine as a college teacher and self-employed writer in the United States. I would earn much less doing the same things in Brazil. I may pat myself on the back for working hard, but where I was born obviously has helped me.

Not all people born in developing countries are penalized. I am visiting two friends who — 33 years ago — struggled as recent college graduates and young parents. Both had good careers and now enjoy a standard of living that is as good as engineers with similar training and work experience in the United States. Birth in a poor country did not hurt them financially, but such people form a small minority.

As Judt explains well, the relative weights you assign to effort versus fortune affect the sorts of economic policies and institutions for which you vote. If you believe factors beyond an individual’s control determine outcomes, then you are likely to support government programs that help those buffeted by life. European job protection laws and social programs reflect how Europeans view life.

If you believe that individual effort is much more important, they you are likely to oppose any laws that stifle initiative or punish effort. Changes in U.S. taxes and social programs during the past 25 years similarly reflect views of U.S. voters.

In the meantime, countries that emphasize protecting individuals from fate will grow more slowly than those that don’t. Countries that foster hard work will have higher income growth, but greater inequality in incomes and levels of living.

© 2006 Edward Lotterman
Chanarambie Consulting, Inc.