U.S. Army Gen. Peter Schoomaker’s recent claim that the 2007 defense budget equals what Americans spend on “plastic Santa Clauses and tinsel” made me mutter, “Is this guy stupid or dishonest?”
The Army’s chief of staff misused data to support an argument, a common but not necessarily malicious practice.
Perhaps a greater disservice was that some news media failed to fact-check Schoomaker’s catchy assertion and to put the data into context for the public.
The incident exemplifies a larger problem: People have trouble comprehending large numbers.
People understand sums of money in terms of their own income, mortgage payment or their home’s value. They know what a million dollars is. But when sums pass into hundreds of millions or billions of dollars, they have no frame of reference to determine if someone is blowing smoke.
That was the effect — if not the intent — of Schoomaker’s comparison. Defending the Defense Department’s request of $440 billion for next year, he compared it to $438.5 million that he claimed was spent on plastic Santa Clauses and tinsel. He said he found that number “in a newspaper clipping.”
Some news services reported his claim verbatim. Others traced his citation, noting it was the National Retail Federation’s estimate for all holiday seasonal spending.
I reacted strongly because my job involves following economic indicators. Schoomaker’s assertion defied common sense. Based on our population of under 300 million people, we’re spending about $1,500 per person on plastic Santas and tinsel. My wife and I don’t spend $3,000 per year on those items and we don’t know anyone else who does.
So, it is smart to check specifics. The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis carefully tabulates household spending and offers better comparisons for a $440 billion defense budget.
We spend $675 billion for food eaten at home. New and used vehicles, tires, batteries and accessories come to $430 billion. All clothing and shoes cost $360 billion. All energy for driving, heating and cooking totals about $420 billion.
The bureau does not publish spending on plastic Santa Clauses and tinsel, though it does list $52 billion on “toys, dolls and games” and another $11 billion on greeting cards.
The public can decide whether Schoomaker intended to mislead or was just sloppy. In judging him, remember this: Two years ago, when it was already clear that Iraq and Afghanistan badly stretched U.S. forces, the general strongly resisted proposals to add two divisions — about 40,000 soldiers — to strengthen the Army. It would take two years to accomplish, he said then, and the cost – about $6 billion per division – was prohibitively high.
Two years have passed and our forces remain stretched. Six billion dollars is a lot, but it’s less than buying greeting cards.
© 2006 Edward Lotterman
Chanarambie Consulting, Inc.